Three More Weeks of the Tisch Effect
Crime Stats Should Remind Us that NYPD Efficacy Matters
On January 19, I wrote here about CompStat data from the first seven weeks of Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch’s tenure, and asked whether it was possible that her appointment had produced an almost immediate reduction in crime.
I noted that in Tisch’s first seven weeks, New York City saw a 16.88% year-over-year reduction in major felonies — compared to a 6.54% year-over-year reduction in the seven weeks preceding her appointment. I posited that the NYPD had fallen into all manner of malaise and dysfunction, that there was a fair amount of crime-fighting leverage being left on the table, and that Tisch’s appointment and early days provided a much-needed jolt that was showing up on the streets and in the data.
Although the before-and-after data was pretty stark, my gut instinct, even as I wrote that piece, was that a statistical anomaly was more likely than this theory being proven out over time. Three more weeks of data, however, and the “Tisch Effect” seems to be going strong.
The last three weeks of CompStat data have shown year-over-year reductions in major felonies of 19.42%, 20.91%, and 12.29%, respectively. Looking the chunk of the calendar covered by Tisch’s first ten weeks, we’ve seen a year-over-year drop in major felonies of 17.11%. This compares to a year-over-year drop of 5.5% in the ten weeks preceding her appointment — and to a drop of just 1.89% for all of 2024 prior to her appointment.
Indeed, the inflection point really does seem to be right when Tisch was appointed. In the period beforehand, the percentage reduction, year-over-year, in major felonies committed per week hovered in the mid-single digits, with a drop of 6.51% in the last full week before she was appointed (ending 11/17/24). The first full week of her tenure (ending 12/1/24), the drop was 17.54% and it has since stayed in the mid- to high-double digits. The worst week in her tenure by this measure (a drop of 12.29% in the week ending 1/19/25) was still better than the best week in the ten pre-Tisch weeks (an 11.09% drop in the week ending 9/15/24).
This chart below shows the weekly year-over-year declines in major felonies going back to mid-September. It’s clear enough that I don’t even need to include a marker to indicate when Tisch took over:
My point in writing these pieces is not to sing the praises of Commissioner Tisch (although, at a time when New Yorkers have lost faith in government at all levels, for a range of reasons, it’s worth celebrating when government officials do a good job and produce results).
My point is that we shouldn’t forget, or underestimate, the connection between how well the NYPD is being run and how safe our city is. Indeed, there are strong incentives on both the right and the left to ignore that connection. There are conservative voices that aim aimed to hang every crime committed in the five boroughs on criminal justice reform policies and efforts to end mass incarceration — even when that means turning a blind eye to the effects of running the police department as a patronage and overtime mill. At the same time, many on the left are happy to criticize the NYPD and its leadership while refusing to entertain any discussion of building the department up, or even to acknowledge the connection between policing and crime reduction.
Every week that the Tisch Effect continues, and the NYPD demonstrates that old-fashioned efficacy makes a difference, both of these obviously incomplete and reductive views of public safety should get harder and harder to defend.